Study #3: COVID-19 Case/Death Data

Study 003: COVID-19 NY Times Stats Benford Study in 10,000 sample subset progressions for:

(1) Accumulative Cases (1st Digit/All Digits),

(2) Accumulative Deaths (1st Digit/All Digits),

(3) Delta Cases (1st Digit/All Digits),

(4) Delta Deaths (1st Digit/All Digits) [1,000 sample subsets],

(5) Differential between Cases and Deaths (1st Digit/All Digits) Morris asked if I could run a Benford analysis on the COVID-19 Cases and Deaths data for each county of the US from March 24th to May 6th. I, Jason Page, conducted the study yesterday and finalized the results here today (May 7th 2020).

Conclusion: this study suggests that values have not been fraudulent; however whether or not fraud is being conducted in diagnosis cannot be determined with Benford Analysis. This analysis demonstrates that the numbers represent real people; whether or not their diagnosis of COVID-19 is legitimate is inconclusive in this study.

This study uses data published by the New York Times in their github repository at: Study results (Charted):

(1) Accumulative Cases (1st Digit/All Digits):

(2) Accumulative Deaths (1st Digit/All Digits):

(3) Delta Cases (1st Digit/All Digits):
(4) Delta Deaths (1st Digit/All Digits):
(5) Differential between Cases and Deaths (1st Digit/All Digits):
Document Created 05/07/2020, Updated 05/07/2020 @ 12:00 CST